000 AXNT20 KNHC 291725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Depression Alberto on 29/1500 UTC is inland over Alabama near 33.8N 87.2W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, with a minimum pressure of 999 mb. See the latest WPC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers TCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues over central and western Cuba, adding to the 10 to 18 inches of rainfall that entrained during the passage of Subtropical Storm Alberto over the weekend and Monday. Widespread flooding and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a concern through tonight. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 46W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 01N35W to 02N45W. The ITCZ extends W of a tropical wave at 02N48W and continues the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 05N-09N between 16W-19W. Isolated moderate convetion is within 180 nm of the entire ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection remains over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 28N and E of 90W associated with southern portion of Alberto. Scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 87W associated with tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. The W Gulf in contrast has mostly fair weather. Fresh winds and seas to 5 ft associated with Alberto are north of 28N along the Gulf coasts of Alabama and Florida. Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will diminish further today as it moves further inland. Elsewhere, moderate winds in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf waters will diminish also today as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf. Fair weather will continue west of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 16N-20N between 81W-83W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from E Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Strong E to SE winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and troughing west of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N44W and a 1028 mb high near 32N29W. The gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge is producing fresh southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will diminish during the next six hours. Expect a cold front to reach near 30N in the central Atlantic on Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move east Friday with isolated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa