000 AXNT20 KNHC 291206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Depression Alberto on 29/0900 UTC is inland over Alabama near 32.3N 86.8W. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, with a minimum pressure of 995 mb. See the last NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues over central Cuba, adding to the 10 to 18 inches of rainfall that entrained during the passage of Subtropical Storm Alberto over the weekend and Monday. Widespread flooding and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a concern through tonight. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is south of 13N along 42W moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 01N37W to 03N41W, then west of the tropical wave from 03N44W to the coast of South America near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 06N-09N between 16W-19W. Isolated moderate convetion is within 180 nm of the entire ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Isolated moderate convection remains over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 27N and E of 89W associated with southern portion of Alberto. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf S of 25N and E of 86W associated with tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba and the Caribbean Sea. The W Gulf in contrast has mostly fair weather. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 6 ft associated with Alberto are north of 28N along the Gulf coasts of Alabama and Florida. Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will rapidly diminish today as it moves further inland. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the western Gulf waters will diminish through tonight as high pressure builds across the eastern Gulf. Fair weather will continue west of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the week. The strongest winds are expected the coast of Colombia. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed through early Fri with associated increasing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 29N44W and a 1027 mb high near 35N23W. The gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge is producing fresh southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will diminish during the next 12 hours. Expect a cold front to reach near 30N in the central Atlantic on Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move east Friday and Saturday with isolated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa