000 AXNT20 KNHC 290007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall along the Florida panhandle coast at 2100 UTC, and is centered near 30.3N 85.9W, or about 15 miles WNW of Panama City. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Deep convection associated with the system is primarily north of the center over land. A line of scattered moderate showers is across the SE Gulf of Mexico from 29N83W to 22N86W. Alberto is forecast to move well inland on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is south of 13N along 38W moving W at 15 kt. The wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ goes from 05N20W to 02N36W, then continues west of the tropical wave to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 13W- 32W, and from 03S-05N between 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently making landfall near Panama City Florida. Tropical storm force winds associated with Alberto extend up to 60 nm south of the center, and 12 ft or greater seas are up to 90 nm south of the center, with seas to 16 ft. Winds and seas in the NE Gulf of Mexico will rapidly diminish overnight as moves further inland. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds are in the western Gulf waters. 5-6 ft seas are over the NE Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. 2-5 ft seas are over the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect for winds and seas to decrease through Tuesday. Fair weather prevails W of 90W. In the upper levels, the W Gulf has NW flow due to ridging, with strong subsidence. The E Gulf has a sharp upper level trough with axis along 88W over Alberto. CARIBBEAN SEA... Heavy rain and numerous showers are across Cuba, adding to heavy rain already due to the passage of Subtropical Storm Alberto over the weekend. Flooding and landslides in mountainous areas remain a concern in Cuba through Tuesday. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through the week. The strongest winds are expected the coast of Colombia. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula Wed through early Fri with associated increasing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Widespread showers and localized areas of heavy rain are between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 30N43W and a 1027 mb high near 37N24W. The gradient between Alberto and the mid-Atlantic ridge is producing 20-25 kt southerly winds W of 76W. These winds will diminish during the next 12-24 hours. Expect a cold front to reach the central Atlantic near 30N on Thursday. The tail end of this front will then move E Friday and Saturday with isolated convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell