000 AXNT20 KNHC 281225 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 813 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto as of 28/1200 UTC, is located near 29.0N 86.0W, or about 87 nautical miles SSE of Destin, FL. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Alberto is moving N at 5 knots. Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers are near the center over the NE Gulf of Mexico from 25N-31N between 83W-89W. A large band of scattered moderate to strong convection is E of the center over the NW Caribbean, central Cuba, the Straits of Florida, S Florida, and the N Bahamas, from 16N-27N between 77W-84W. Alberto is expected to move inland, in the Florida Panhandle, this afternoon or evening. Alberto is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 12N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave shows up well in lower level precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W to 03N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N32W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely csattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 14W-26W, and from 03S-05N between 33W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about Subtropical Storm Alberto, currently in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer data is showing fresh to strong winds in the east Gulf near Alberto. Moderate to fresh winds are in the central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds were in the western Gulf waters. The wave heights are reaching 17 feet near Alberto's center, are from 6 feet and higher elsewhere N of 25N and E of 90W, and 2-3 ft for the rest of the Gulf waters. Expect for winds and seas to decrease following landfall today. In contrast, the W Gulf W of 90W has fair weather. In the upper levels, the W Gulf has NW flow due to ridging and strong Subsidence. The E Gulf has a sharp upper level trough with axis along 88W is over Alberto. CARIBBEAN SEA... Outside of the Alberto rainband, isolated moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia. 15-20 kt tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean E of 80W. An upper level trough is over the NW Caribbean. A ridge is over the central Caribbean. NE flow due to a trough is over the E Caribbean. High pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through the week. The strongest winds are expected in the S central Caribbean Sea. A strong trough will move from the NW Caribbean Sea to the Yucatan Peninsula from Wednesday through early Friday, with associated increasing winds and seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The surface pressure gradient between Subtropical Storm Alberto and the Atlantic surface ridge may support increasing wind speeds to near gale-force in the Florida coastal and offshore waters through tonight. An upper level trough extends from a 25N52W cyclonic circulation center, to 18N58W, toward Barbados. Rainshowers are possible from 15N to 30N between 45W and 60W. A surface ridge passes through 32N30W, to 30N48W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 33N57W, continuing beyond 35N77W and the coast of North Carolina. A tight surface pressure gradient will persist through Monday, as Subtropical Storm Alberto moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while central Atlantic ridging lingers. Winds will be near gale W of 79W and strong between 77W and 79W through tonight. Conditions will improve on Tuesday, as the pressure gradient weakens. It is possible that a cold front or a frontal trough may drop into the NE waters from Wednesday night through Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa