000 AXNT20 KNHC 260516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Subtropical Storm Alberto, at 26/0300 UTC, is near 19.4N 85.7W, or about 175 km SE of Cozumel, Mexico, and about 290 SSW of the western tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. It is moving eastward or 90 degrees 4 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in Cuba. isolated moderate rainshowers cover the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the Bahamas, from Cuba northward between 73W and 88W. The forecast calls for gradual development as Alberto moves northward into the south central Gulf of Mexico, as either a tropical or subtropical storm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Subtropical Storm Alberto are being listed under the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 13N southward. The wave was showing up well in earlier lower level PW imagery. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 11W and 15W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, moving across Suriname. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 50W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 07N20W, and to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to 01S30W, to the Equator along 41W, to 01S39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 07N southward between 50W and 60W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from the north central Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Alberto will intensify while moving northward, reaching 22.5N 85.7W Sat afternoon with wind speeds of 45 kt gusting to 55 kt. Alberto will transition to a tropical cyclone Sun afternoon centered near 26.8N 86.2W with wind speeds of 55 kt gusting to 65 kt, near 29.0N 87.8W Mon afternoon with wind speeds of 55 kt gusting to 65 kt, then inland near 31.7N 88.6W Tuesday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from north central Gulf of Mexico, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 16N to 18N between 16W and 18W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Alberto will move to 20.7N 85.4W on Saturday morning, moving into the Gulf of Mexico near 22.9N 85.1W on Saturday evening, with winds and seas decreasing in the western Caribbean Sea thereafter. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea through early next week, with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Subtropical Storm Alberto, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 25N through Monday, pulsing to fresh to strong offshore of northern Hispaniola during the afternoon through evening hours each day. SE to S winds will increase to fresh to locally strong W of 77W from Saturday night through Sunday night. The pressure gradient will tighten between Subtropical Storm Alberto in the Gulf of Mexico and high pressure elsewhere. Those conditions should improve by Tue as the pres gradient slackens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT