000 AXNT20 KNHC 241805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is centered over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W, gradually becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and also extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is within 780 nm SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 12N48W to 02S49W, moving west at 15 to 20 knots. The wave is in a moderate moist environment that is supporting isolated showers within 150 nm either side of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near 07N13W and continues to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N35W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong showers are in the vicinity of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between 03W- 19W. Scattered moderate showers are within 175 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida to the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near 28N94W. Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of the basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern Gulf, however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan Peninsula is supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds being the strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low pressure is generating showers and tstms in the region of strongest winds. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong winds and building seas are expected east of this system. See special features section for further details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for hazards associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from the central Atlc into the northern and eastern Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W this weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan Peninsula. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and the northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing tropical low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW of the Azores Islands by a 1029 mb high. This high is supporting moderate winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc passages to the Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos