000 AXNT20 KNHC 231714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad cyclonic wind flow spans the area from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the surface into the upper levels of the atmosphere. A surface trough is in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula to NW Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 17N to 22N between 84W and 88W, in the far NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are 13N to 16N between 82W and 84W, in the coastal plains and coastal waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from Jamaica westward in the Caribbean Sea, and from 20N northward from 70W westward in the Atlantic Ocean. Little development into a tropical cyclone is expected during the next couple of days, due to strong upper level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development into a tropical cyclone, after the next 48 hours or so. It is possible that a subtropical depression or a tropical depression may form this weekend in the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the western sections of Cuba and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and in much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. Please stay tuned to forecasts that are issued by your local weather office for more details. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 10N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. isolated moderate rainshowers are from the Equator to 06N between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 04N20W, to the Equator along 29W, to the Equator along 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the upper level trough and related surface weather features from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea. One upper level trough is in place already in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. That feature is the topic of discussion for the SPECIAL FEATURES section. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N96W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from 25N to 30N between 90W and 97W. the precipitation is reaching the upper Texas Gulf coast. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 32N48W high pressure center into the NE Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward through early Thursday. Broad surface low pressure, that is just to the north of Belize, is expected to develop more and more, off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday morning. The low pressure center will move northward, slowly, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. Expect near gale-force winds and associated seas to the east of the low pressure center. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the upper level trough and related surface weather features from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 23N55W cyclonic circulation center, through 17N58W, to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A surface ridge extends into the northern Caribbean Sea, from a 32N48W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high pressure center. Expect fresh to strong trade winds in the central and eastern sections through Thursday morning, with the strongest winds being along the coast of Colombia. Broad surface low pressure, that is just north of Belize, will drift northward into the Gulf of Mexico through Friday morning. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas are forecast for the NW Caribbean Sea, from Thursday night through Saturday morning, as the area of low pressure develops more and more in the Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the upper level trough and related surface weather features from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean Sea. An upper level trough extends from a 23N55W cyclonic circulation center, through 17N58W, to the coast of Venezuela near 11N63W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 11N to 20N between 52W and 70W, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N to 30N between 46W and 57W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center, that is near 32N48W, beyond Florida. Expect moderate to fresh trade winds south of 27N this week, with winds pulsing to strong N of Hispaniola at night on Wednesday and on Thursday. The winds will diminish slightly on Friday, as the ridge shifts eastward. A developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico for this weekend will increase SE winds west of 77W from Friday through Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT