000 AXNT20 KNHC 230004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 17N87W. A surface trough is along 87W, through the 1009 mb low center, from southern Honduras to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The system just east of Belize is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and into the Florida peninsula. Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and proximity to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. However, gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. There is a very low possibility of tropical storm formation over the next 24 hours. There is a medium chance for tropical formation within 5 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 39W, S of 11N, moving W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. No significant precipitation accompanies this tropical wave. A weak tropical wave is along 66W from 17N southward in the eastern Caribbean Sea, south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant precipitation accompanies this tropical wave. It is likely that the wave will become diffuse late tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 03N26W to 01N36W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-03N between 04W-36W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in place over the far E Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis, over the W Atlantic. A second upper level trough has entered the NW Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the central Gulf in between the two troughs. A surface ridge in the northern Gulf coast will shift eastward through mid week. A developing low pressure center is forecast to emerge off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday night. The low pressure center will move N slowly. It will approach the N central Gulf coast by Saturday evening, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas to the eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above. Clusters of scattered moderate convection is inland over Central America from the Yucatan Peninsula to Panama. An area of scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 15N-22N between 78W-83W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Hispaniola eastward. The cyclonic wind flow is moving around a trough, that passes through the Atlantic Ocean, toward the coast of Venezuela. Strong subidence is over the E Caribbean. A surface ridge along 30N will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and strong winds and sea heights to 9 feet will affect the NW coast of Colombia through Friday. The low pressure center, that is just to the east of Belize, will move N into the Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will develop between the trough and the Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is to the south of Cuba, on Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic W of 74W to include the Bahamas and Florida. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N49W producing fair weather. An E-to-W oriented ridge along 30N will support gentle to moderate SE winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N into the middle of the week. The wind speeds will pulse to strong N of Hispaniola mainly at night. The winds and sea heights will diminish slightly by Friday, as the ridge shifts eastward. SE winds may increase near Cay Sal Bank and the Florida Straits starting on Friday, as the NW Caribbean Sea low pressure center moves northward through the Gulf of Mexico. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa