000 AXNT20 KNHC 171643 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 10N41W to 02S42W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave appears as poleward surge in low level moisture and troughing at 700 mb. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-05N between 38W-45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N30W to 01N41W, then resumes W of the tropical wave near 01N44W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-07N between 00W-05W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W-37W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to 25N90W. This surface trough is interacting with an upper trough over the eastern Gulf along 87W to produce numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms east of 88W including Florida, Florida Straits, and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh SW winds are over the NE Gulf, N of 27N and to the east of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 27N over the eastern Gulf. A weak 1014 mb high center is over the western Gulf near 25N93W and is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the central and western Gulf, except moderate to fresh winds near the Texas coast, where a tighter pressure gradient exists due to a cold front over interior east Texas. The surface trough over the NE Gulf will gradually weaken tonight. The upper trough over the eastern Gulf will remain for several days, and will continue to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly over the far eastern Gulf, where deeper moisture and better lift will be present. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean. Upper level diffluence on the eastern side of this trough is supporting scattered moderate convection and embedded thunderstorms N of 13N between 75W-85W. Broad high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic supports moderate to fresh tradewinds over the majority of the Caribbean basin, except for light winds over the SW Caribbean, and strong winds over the central Caribbean. Wave heights near 10 ft are occurring under the stronger winds as confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. The eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 13N between 77W-84W. Over the next couple of days the upper trough will remain in place with an enhancement of shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean. The surface ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in place across the Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough and surface trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered showers and thunderstormsover the W Atlantic W of 76W, including the N Bahamas. a 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 33N52W. Another 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 36N33W. The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high and lower pressures in the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to locally strong E to SE winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and E of the the northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are occurring across the central Atlantic S of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the central Atlantic N of 27N. Moderate NE winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic. The overall pattern will change little over the next few days, with ongoing convection possible W of 75W and strong winds expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and at times eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa