000 AXNT20 KNHC 171157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 12N40W to 02S41W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave appears as poleward surge in mid level moisture and troughing at 700 mb. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-05N between 37W-43W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N30W to 02N39W, then resumes W of the tropical wave near 02N42W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 07W-30W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low over the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W to 24N87W. This surface feature is interacting with an upper trough with an axis over the eastern Gulf to produce scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms east of 85W including the Florida Peninsula, Florida Straits, and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh SW winds are over the NE Gulf, N of 27N and to the east of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 27N over the eastern Gulf. A weak 1014 mb high center is over the western Gulf near 26N94W and is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the central and western Gulf, except moderate to fresh winds near the Texas coast, where a tighter pressure gradient exists due to a cold front over interior east Texas. The low over the Florida panhandle will move NE of the region today with the trailing surface trough gradually weakening. The upper trough over the eastern Gulf will remain for several days, and will continue to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly over the far eastern Gulf, where deeper moisture and better lift will be present. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean. Upper level diffluence on the eastern side of this trough is supporting scattered moderate convection and embedded thunderstorms N of 11N between 75W-85W. Broad high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic supports moderate to fresh tradewinds over the majority of the Caribbean basin, except for light winds over the SW Caribbean, and strong winds over the S Central Caribbean. Wave heights near 10 ft are occurring under the stronger winds as confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. The eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends along 09N between Costa Rica and N Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 11N between 75W-84W. Over the next couple of days the upper trough will remain in place with an enhancement of shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean. The surface ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in place across the Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough and surface trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms W of 76W, including the central and NW Bahamas. An expansive area of high pressure centered from just E of Bermuda to the Azores spans the remainder of the western, central, and eastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to locally strong E to SE winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and E of the the northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are occurring across the central Atlantic S of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the central Atlantic N of 27N. Moderate NE winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic. The overall pattern will change little over the next few days, with ongoing convection possible W of 75W and strong winds expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and at times eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa