000 AXNT20 KNHC 170520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 11N38W to 00N40W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave appears as poleward surge in mid level moisture and troughing at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 07N between 30W and 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N38W, then resumes W of the tropical wave near 00N42W and continues to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N between 05W and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low over the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to 25N87W. This surface feature is interacting with an upper trough with an axis over the eastern Gulf to produce scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms east of a line from 29N89W to 22N86W, including the Florida Peninsula, Florida Straits, and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh SW winds are over the NE Gulf, N of 27N and to the east of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are S of 27N over the eastern Gulf. A weak 1013 mb high center is over the western Gulf near 26N94W and is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the central and western Gulf, except moderate to fresh winds near the Texas coast, where a tighter pressure gradient exists due to a cold front over interior east Texas. The low over the Florida panhandle will move NE of the region by Friday with the trailing surface trough gradually weakening. The upper trough over the eastern Gulf will continue to be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly over the far eastern Gulf, where deeper moisture and better lift will be present. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough extends over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern portions of central America. Upper level diffluence on the eastern side of this trough is supporting scattered moderate convection and embedded thunderstorms from 11N to 22N W of 80W, except the Yucatan Channel, where drier air is inhibiting thunderstorm activity. Broad high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic supports moderate to fresh tradewinds over the majority of the Caribbean basin this morning, except for light winds over the SW Caribbean, and strong winds over the S Central Caribbean. Wave heights near 10 ft are occurring under the stronger winds as confirmed by a recent satellite altimeter pass. Over the next couple of days the upper trough will remain in place which will keep an enhancement of shower and thunderstorm activity over the western Caribbean. The ridging pattern over the Atlantic will persist, keeping a similar wind profile in place across the Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough and surface trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms W of 76W, including the central and NW Bahamas. An expansive area of high pressure centered from just E of Bermuda to the Azores spans the remainder of the western, central, and eastern Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to locally strong E to SE winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola and E of the the northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are occurring across the central Atlantic S of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds cover the central Atlantic N of 27N. Moderate NE winds are occurring over the eastern Atlantic. The overall pattern will change little over the next few days, with ongoing convection possible W of 75W and strong winds expected to continue along the northern coast of Hispaniola, and at times eastern Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto