000 AXNT20 KNHC 161200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 10N southward. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-06N between 31W- 38W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to 04N34W. The ITCZ resumes W of the tropical wave near 04N36W and continues to 01N40W to the coast of N Brazil near 02N50W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical wave, widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 07W-20W, and from 02S-03N between 20W-31W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N36W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 28N86W to 24N88W. Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico, and W Cuba between 81W-86W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the trough, and over central Florida. A 1015 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 27N95W producing fair weather. An upper level trough has been in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico during the last few days. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N85W. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb maintains the upper level trough and cyclonic circulation center for the next few days. The low over the NE Gulf is forecast to drift northward, reaching inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. A surface trough will trail from the low pressure center, across the north central Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Caribbean from 19N-22N between 82W-86W. Isolated moderate convection is further S along the coasts of Honduras ans Nicaragua from 11N-17N between 81W-84W. Scattered showers are inland over Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 08.5N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is S of 11N. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the W Caribbean between 80W-90W, including across Central America. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong tradewinds across the Caribbean Sea, south of 18N east of 80W, through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 9 feet off the northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the tropical waters northeast of the Virgin Islands on Friday, and reach the northeast Atlantic Ocean Passages on Saturday, with seas then subsiding from the east on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1027 mb high centered near 32N53W. Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 24N-31N between 75W-79W to include the N Bahamas. Elsewhere, a 1030 mb high is centered over the Azores near 39N28W. An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic circulation center, to 29N23W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 27N40W, The trough continues to 23N50W and 21N59W. The central Atlantic high will prevail in the forecast waters through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the tropical waters, including the approaches to the northern Caribbean Sea Passages. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa