000 AXNT20 KNHC 160524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak and ill-defined tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 10N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N southward between 30W and 40W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N15W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W and 01N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 12W and 18W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 28N86W, to 25N87W and 24N88W. An upper level trough has been in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico during the last few days. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N85W. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb maintains the upper level trough and cyclonic circulation center for the next few days. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 74W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas from 18N in the Caribbean Sea northward between 73W in the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico, including across the Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Broad low pressure continues in the eastern waters, with a weak low pressure center currently in the northeast Gulf waters. The low pressure center is forecast to drift northward, reaching inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. The low pressure center is forecast to move northward. A surface trough will trail from the low pressure center, across the north central Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that is between 80W and 90W, including across Central America. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in western Nicaragua, and in the eastern Pacific Ocean from 12N to 16N between 90W and 94W, mostly in the coastal waters from El Salvador toward the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover parts of northern Guatemala and the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in northern Colombia, through Panama and southern Costa Rica, beyond 09N85W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. isolated moderate rainshowers are in inland sections and the coastal waters of Panama. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across the Caribbean Sea, south of 18N east of 80W, through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 9 feet off the northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the tropical waters northeast of the Virgin Islands on Friday, and reach the northeast Atlantic Ocean Passages on Saturday, with seas then subsiding from the east on Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 33N42W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 31N56W, to 30N72W, to the Florida coast near 30N81W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward, and from 20N northward from 80W eastward. An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic circulation center, to 29N23W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 27N40W, The trough continues to 23N50W and 21N59W. Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast waters through Sunday. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the tropical waters, including the approaches to the northern Caribbean Sea Passages. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT