000 AXNT20 KNHC 160005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave - the first of the season - has been included on the Surface Analysis near 31W from about 02N to 11N. There is no discernible surface signature to the wave, though it is well defined on the SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics through cyclonic turning of the 700 mb winds as well as a maximum in total precipitable water just east of wave axis. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N27W and 01N37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 03N to 06N between 14W and 18W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb broad surface low is centered over the northeastern Gulf near 28N86W with an attached trough extending northeastward to the Florida panhandle and southwestward to 23N91W. The system is a deep-layer low with the upper tropospheric circulation center nearly collocated at 28N85W. The surface low is anticipated to drift slowly northward and move inland over the southeastern United States by Thursday morning. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued this morning at 1200 UTC, which gives the system a Low chance of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Areal coverage and intensity of the convection associated with this system remain very limited. Only isolated moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the trough in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection will occur in association with this system for the next two days over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds - away from any thunderstorm activity - are moderate breeze or less for the next few days. Broad low pressure continues over the eastern waters with a weak surface low currently over the northeast gulf waters forecast to drift north reaching inland the Florida Panhandle by early Thu. As the low continues northward it will trail a trough across the north-central waters through Fri. A ridge will set up from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas Coastal during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the Caribbean south of 18N east of 80W through the upcoming weekend with highest seas of 9 ft off the northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the tropical waters northeast of the Virgin Islands on Fri, and reach the northeast Atlantic Passages on Sat, with seas then subsiding from the east on Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 mb surface high is centered north of our area at 40N26W with a surface ridge extending west-southwestward to 31N74W. Surface tradewinds are generally fresh breeze or weaker across the area, except for strong breeze just north of Hispaniola including the approach to the Windward Passage. Little change is expected during the next few days. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring between 23N-30N from 72W-80W in association with the deep-layer low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Continued presence of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is expected during the next few days for the central and western Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the waters west of 75W due to the strong southerly advection of moisture along with the upper level trough to the west. A ridge will meander from Bermuda to Port Canaveral Florida through Sun supporting fresh to locally strong flow across the tropical waters including the approaches to the northern Caribbean Passages. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT