000 AXNT20 KNHC 141750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... An upper level low is interacting with a poorly defined 1012 mb surface low near 25N86W and a NE-SW oriented surface trough that extends from 22N87W through the low to near 29N84W. This feature supports scattered moderate convection and numerous showers E of 87W, including the Florida Straits and Florida Peninsula. This system will enhance rainfall across parts of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days as it drifts slowly northward. There is currently a low chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 06N between 10W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A complex low pressure system is over the eastern Gulf producing heavy rainfall and will be the main weather producer over the eastern Gulf the next few days. Please see the special features section for more details. Mainly moderate cyclonic flow covers the eastern Gulf, except stronger near thunderstorms. High pressure over the southern United States extends southwest to the NW Gulf coast and is producing mainly moderate easterly flow over the western Gulf. The only exception is moderate to fresh winds associated with a thermally induced surface trough that is over the bay of Campeche. This trough is void of convection. This trough will weaken through the day and redevelop over the Yucatan Peninsula later this evening. The trough will move offshore tonight over the Bay of campeche bringing with it a return of fresh winds. This pattern will continue to repeat itself through this week. Otherwise, little change is expected over the western Gulf over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The combination of an upper level trough over the NW Caribbean and abundant mid to upper level moisture over the region is supporting scattered to numerous showers over much of the central Caribbean, including Cuba and Hispaniola. High pressure over the Atlantic is helping to produce moderate tradewinds over the northern Caribbean, and mainly fresh tradewinds over the southern Caribbean. Winds over the southern Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will pulse to strong at night the next few nights, expanding to include the south central coast of Hispaniola by midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper low and surface trough/low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central and NW Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters W of 75W. A broad area of high pressure centered near the Azores dominates the remainder of the waters N of 10N. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure associated with the Gulf of Mexico trough/low supports fresh SE winds over the central and NW Bahamas and nearby waters. Gentle to moderate winds cover the Atlantic between 27N and 31N. Moderate to fresh tradewinds cover the Atlantic S of 27N. The high pressure ridge will maintain these winds through Thu, except with winds increasing over the Bahamas and E of north Florida to fresh to strong tonight. Also, winds N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon to late evening each day through Thu. The area of strong winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as 23N by Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic gradually strengthens and low pressure over northern South America deepens slightly. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto