000 AXNT20 KNHC 141158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... An upper level low is interacting with a weak 1012 mb surface low near 25N86W and a N-S oriented surface trough that extends from the low to near 30N84W. This feature supports scattered moderate convection and numerous showers E of 87W, including the Florida Straits and Florida Peninsula. This system will enhance rainfall across parts of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days as it drifts slowly northward. There is currently a low chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis between 14W and 34W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 34W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A complex low pressure system is over the eastern Gulf producing heavy rainfall. Please see the special features section for more details. Mainly moderate cyclonic flow covers the eastern Gulf. High pressure over the southern United States extends southwest to the NW Gulf coast and is producing mainly moderate easterly flow over the western Gulf. Little change is expected over the western Gulf over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with the strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and the weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific Monsoon Trough. The combination of an upper level trough over the NW Caribbean and abundant mid to upper level moisture over the region is supporting scattered to numerous showers over much of the central Caribbean, including Cuba and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong tradewinds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central and NW Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters. A broad area of high pressure centered near the Azores dominates the remainder of the waters N of 10N. The high pressure ridge will maintain moderate winds N of 25N and fresh winds S of 25N through Thu. Low pres over the NE Gulf of Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters N of the Bahamas from 27N- 29N between 77W-79W tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected during this time frame over this area as a result. Winds N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon to late evening each day through Thu. The area of strong winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as 23N by Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic gradually strengthens and low pressure over northern South America deepens slightly. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto