000 AXNT20 KNHC 140521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of cloudiness, and rainshowers with thunder, covers the areas from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. This weather is associated with a broad surface low pressure center and trough, that are interacting with an upper level cyclonic circulation center. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 24N85.5W. It is possible that this system may acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. This system will enhance rainfall across parts of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during the next few days. The Tropical Weather Outlook currently gives this system a low chance of tropical or subtropical formation. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for AGADIR until 15 May at 0000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N22W, 03N30W, crossing the Equator along 38W, continuing to the Equator along 41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... The surface low pressure center that is in the SE Gulf will move northward slowly during the week. Rainshowers, some with thunder, will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low center through the week. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 250 mb shows that an upper level trough will be in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico for much of the next 7 days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Monsoon Trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, across Panama near 08N81W, beyond 07N84W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in Colombia, Panama, and in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 06N to 12N from 73W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Friday night. NE swell will maintain seas about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean forecast waters until Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the rain and the Gulf of Mexico features that may be affecting the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean. A first upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N29W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 20W and 40W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from 30N northward between 25W and 32W. A second cyclonic circulation center is near 29N52W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are N of 24N between 43W and 55W. Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast waters through Friday. Fresh to strong winds will prevail to the north of Hispaniola. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt