000 AXNT20 KNHC 131649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for AGADIR until 14 May at 1200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 00W-07W, and from 04N-06N between 13W-16W. Scattered showers are from 00N-04N between 24W- 34W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W producing 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is over Florida from 28.5N80W to the Straits of Florida near 23N82W. Radar imagery shows widely scattered moderate convection over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba, due to the surface trough. The surface trough will amplify over the SE Gulf today. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Monday and move NW, moving inland over the SE United States by midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean mostly S of W Cuba. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N passing from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica to Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean with axis from Costa Rica to Haiti. A good amount of upper level moisture is over this area. In contrast, strong subsidence is over the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell will maintain sea heights about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean forecast waters until Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the W Atlantic extends from 32N78W to central Florida near 28.5N80W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 70W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 31N51W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 32N40W to 26N39W. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-60W with scattered showers. An upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N33W with scattered showers. The current W Atlantic surface trough will shift W over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico today and tonight. A high pressure ridge E of the trough will maintain moderate winds N of 25N and fresh winds S of 25N through Thu. Low pres over the NE Gulf of Mexico will tighten the pressure gradient over the waters N of the Bahamas from 27N-29N between 77W-79W on Mon night. Strong SE winds are expected during this time frame over this area as a result. Winds N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon to late evening each day through Thu. The area of strong winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as 23N by Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic gradually strengthens and low pressure over northern South America deepens slightly. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa