000 AXNT20 KNHC 131204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for AGADIR until 14 May at 1200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 12W-15W. Scattered showers are from 00N-03N between 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 35N84W producing 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over S Florida, the Straits of Florida, and W Cuba, due to a surface trough. The surface trough will amplify over the SE Gulf today. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Monday and move NW, moving inland over the SE United States by midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean mostly S of W Cuba. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N passing from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica to Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean with axis from Costa Rica to Haiti. A good amount of upper level moisture is over this area. In contrast, strong subsidence is over the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell will maintain sea heights about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean forecast waters until Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the W Atlantic extends from 32N77W to central Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are elsewhere N of 20N and W of 72W. A 1026 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N49W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 32N39W to 27N37W. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 50W-60W with scattered showers. An upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N33W with scattered showers. The current W Atlantic surface trough will lift slowly NW over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and on Sunday. A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds in the forecast waters through Wednesday night. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each day from afternoon to late evening. It is possible that the winds speeds may become strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa