000 AXNT20 KNHC 130520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14 May/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 01N20W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01S44W off the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward from 40W eastward, and from 10N southward between 40W and 60W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. A NW-to-SE orientated upper level trough passes through the north central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough will amplify in the SE Gulf on Sunday. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Monday, and move slowly NW, moving inland in the SE U.S.A. by midweek. rainshowers with thunder will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE orientated upper level trough is in the Yucatan Channel and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area that is to the east of the line that runs from NE Nicaragua to the Windward Passage. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N75W beyond 07N80W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell will maintain sea heights about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean forecast waters until Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough passes through Bermuda, to 30N70W, across the NW Bahamas near Eleuthera, southern sections of Andros Island, to the coast of Cuba near 23N78W on the Atlantic Ocean side. Clouds and precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the waters and islands from Cuba at 20N between 72W and Florida, including possibly across parts of Florida. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 70W, with a 60W trough from 20N northward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 23N northward between 50W and 60w. An upper level trough extends from a 29N35W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N44W, to 13N57W, about 180 nm to the east of the eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 31N39W 28N38W 26N37W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 27N northward between 30W and 40w. The current surface trough, from Bermuda to Cuba, will lift slowly NW over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and on Sunday. A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds in the forecast waters through Wednesday night. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each day from afternoon to late evening. It is possible that the winds speeds may become strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt