000 AXNT20 KNHC 130005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14 May/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N13W and 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to the Equator along 25W, along the Equator to 50W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. A NW-to-SE orientated upper level trough passes through Louisiana, beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 91W eastward. High pressure in the northern waters will lift northward this weekend as a surface trough develops in the SE Gulf. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Sun and slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle. This system will make landfall Tue night and then head into the SE U.S.A. rainshowers with thunder will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low until the low pressure center moves inland. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE orientated upper level trough is in the Yucatan Channel and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the area that is to the east of the line that runs from NE Nicaragua to the Windward Passage. The Monsoon Trough is along 07N/08N from the eastern Pacific Ocean, passing across southern sections of Panama to the coast of Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 07N to 12N between 73W in NW Colombia, across Panama and southern Costa Rica. Fresh to strong trades will prevail over the south- central Caribbean through Wed night. NE swell will maintain seas around 8 ft over the southern portion of the tropical N Atlc forecast waters until Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough passes through Bermuda, to 30N71W, across the NW Bahamas near Great Abaco, to the coast of Cuba near 23N80W, on the Atlantic Ocean side. Clouds and precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the waters and islands from Cuba at 20N between 73W and Florida, including across parts of Florida. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. An upper level trough extends from a 29N36W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N45W, to 14N57W, about 180 nm to the east of the eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea. rainshowers are possible from 26N northward between 30W and 40w. The current surface trough will lift slowly NW over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlc will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds over the forecast waters through Wed night. Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each day from afternoon to late evening. Winds could become strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt