000 AXNT20 KNHC 121722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14 May/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale to gale in AGADIR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W, to 00N30W to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-05N between 02W-09W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from from 03S-06N between 38W-57W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... 10-20 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over the SE Gulf, W Cuba, the Straits of Florida, and S Florida. Scattered showers are over central Florida. An upper level trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico with axis along 90W. High pressure over the northern waters will lift northward this weekend as a surface trough develops over the SE Gulf. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Sun and slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle. This system will make landfall Tue night and then head into the SE United States. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E of the low until it makes landfall. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the NW Caribbean. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N, passing from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over this area S of 12N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean with axis from Costa Rica to Haiti. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. NE swell will maintain seas 8 to 10 feet in the central Caribbean, and the coast of N Colombia through the weekend. Winds could become strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N74W. A surface trough extends from 32N66W to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A large 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N44W. An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N between 55W-65W with scattered showers. An upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 28N38W with scattered showers. The current surface trough will lift NW this weekend. High pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the middle of the upcoming week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa