000 AXNT20 KNHC 120555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 13 May/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a NE near gale or gale in AGADIR. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 01N30W 01N40W, and toward the the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N southward from 46W westward. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A trough is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb ridge reaches from 23N80W at the coast of Cuba, W Cuba, to 16N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 23N to 25N between 83W and 86W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 28N southward from 90W eastward, including across Florida and possibly in parts of Cuba. A surface trough is along 87W/88W from 14N in Honduras to 23N in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in the NE corner of the area, near 29N86W. High pressure in the northern waters will lift northward this weekend, as a surface trough develops in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure will develop along the trough early next week, and lift northward into the SE U.S.A. by midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Caribbean Sea from 700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb ridge lines up along 87W/88W from El Salvador to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, in line with the surface trough that is in the same area. Precipitation: numerous strong rainshowers in southern Honduras and eastern El Salvador. rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 17N southward from 76W westward, including in interior sections of Central America. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N, passing from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 10N to 11N between the coast of Colombia and 77W. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within a 30 nm radius of 11N82W. Convective debris clouds, from earlier already- dissipated precipitation, are elsewhere from 14N southward from 76W westward. Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central Caribbean Sea through next Wednesday. NE swell will bring seas to 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean forecast waters through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 32N70W to 27N75W, and to the coast of Cuba near 22N78W. Clouds and Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N51W, to 20N56W, to 20N60W. An upper level trough extends from a 26N41W cyclonic circulation center, to 21N46W 16N52W and 13N56W. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 47W. A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 36N46W, through 32N51W, to 28N61W, and 25N72W. The current surface trough will lift NW during this weekend. High pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the middle of the upcoming week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt