000 AXNT20 KNHC 120005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N30W to the the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N-07N between 02W-22W. Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 01N-03N between 25W-28W, and from 04S-01N between 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico, from 700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb anticyclonic circulation center is just to the east of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 23N to 25N between 83W and 86W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are elsewhere from 28N southward from 90W eastward, including across Florida and possibly in parts of Cuba. A surface trough is along 87W/88W from 15N in Honduras to 24N in the Gulf of Mexico. A 1021 mb high pressure center is in the NE corner of the area, near 29N86W. A weak surface ridge anchored by a high in southern Alabama, and a second center of high pressure NE of Great Abaco, will support light to moderate return flow through Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to develop afterwards in the NE Gulf associated with a surface trough. A second surface trough will move off south Florida into the SE Gulf early on Sun and is forecast to evolve into a center of low pressure that will support fresh to strong winds in the NE Gulf through Mon evening. The low will migrate north-northwest and enter the area of Pensacola Wed morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Caribbean Sea from 700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb ridge lines up along 87W/88W from El Salvador to the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, in line with the surface trough that is in the same area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 07N to 17N between 75W and 88W, including in interior parts of Central America. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N/09N, passing from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. Rainshowers with thunder are associated with an active east Pacific monsoon trough, that is expected in the SW Caribbean Sea during the entire forecast period. A surface ridge, that starts in the north central Atlantic Ocean, will support fresh to strong trades in the south central basin at night and early morning hours. Near gale force winds are possible along the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating frontal trough passes through 32N69W to 28N73W and 23N78W. Clouds and Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N53W, to 20N64W, to the northern part of the Windward Passage. The current frontal trough will continue to dissipate. The surface trough will then move west to inland Florida on Sat night. Scattered showers and tstms are expected over the weekend and early next week in the northern and central Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Straits associated with this trough of low pressure. Surface ridging extending from the central Atlc will get establish Sun and prevail through the middle of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt