000
AXNT20 KNHC 110541
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Fri May 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to the
Equator along 35W, and to the Equator along 50W near the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers, in disorganized clusters, are to the south of 07N12W 
05N26W 06N35W 06N52W. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 03N northward from 07W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. A surface trough is in Florida, along 81W/82W, 
from 25N to NE Florida. Clouds and precipitation: broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, 
are to the SW of the line that passes through 31N81W 27N90W, to 
22N97W at the coast of Mexico. 

The current surface ridge will persist, from the western Atlantic
Ocean across the northern Gulf of Mexico, into early next week.
A weak surface trough will form in the Yucatan Peninsula during 
the evening hours. It will move into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico overnight, and then it will dissipate each morning.
An elongated trough will develop across the E Gulf of Mexico by 
late Monday, and it will shift slowly NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Yucatan Channel, to the coasts 
of Honduras and Nicaragua, and into the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea near the western part of coastal Panama. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible from the Windward Passage westward. 

The Monsoon Trough passes from the eastern Pacific Ocean to 08N in
Panama and Colombia. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 05N northward in Colombia. 

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. 
An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

The current western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift W,
moving inland across Central America on Friday. Fresh to strong
winds will prevail in the central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, is
along 31N71W, to 28N74W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas,
to NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong 
rainshowers cover the areas that are from 20N to 28N between 73W
and 84W, that includes Cuba, parts of the Bahamas, and the
surrounding Atlantic Ocean waters. Multilayered cloud ceilings and
other possible rainshowers are elsewhere to the W of the line 
that passes through 32N63W to 20N70W.

The current surface trough will drift slowly NW through Saturday.
A surface ridge will build from the central Atlantic Ocean in its
wake, and prevail through Tuesday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt