000
AXNT20 KNHC 110005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N35W
and 03N51W. 

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center, that 
is near 31N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, across northern Florida,
into the north central Gulf of Mexico, curving toward the SW
corner of the Gulf. 

The current surface ridge will persist, from the western Atlantic
Ocean across the northern Gulf of Mexico, into early next week.
A weak surface trough will form in the Yucatan Peninsula during 
the evening hours. It will move offshore the Peninsula, into the 
eastern Bay of Campeche during the overnight and early morning 
hours, and then it will dissipate during the afternoons, through 
the weekend. An elongated trough will develop across the E Gulf of
Mexico by late Monday, and it will shift slowly NE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough cuts across NW Cuba, toward the coasts of
Honduras and Nicaragua, toward the Gulf of Uraba in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the SW corner, from 14N southward from
77W westward.

The Monsoon Trough passes from the eastern Pacific Ocean to 
eastern Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the coastal plains/coastal waters from NW
Colombia to western Panama.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. 
An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

The current western Caribbean Sea surface trough will continue to
drift W through tonight before moving inland across Central 
America and dissipating. Moderate to fresh trade winds will 
persist to the east of the trough, with pulses of fresh to strong 
trade winds off northeast Colombia mainly at night. The sea 
heights to the east of the Windward Islands will subside to less 
than 8 feet on Friday, briefly, before the winds and seas increase
modestly through the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary, is
along 31N72W, to the Bahamas near 25N77W, to NW Cuba.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
to the W of the line that passes through 32N54W to the Windward 
Passage. 

The current lingering frontal trough will drift slowly NW through
Saturday. A surface ridge will build from the central Atlantic 
Ocean SW, and across the waters that are to the north of 25N 
afterward. Generally moderate to fresh winds will be to the south 
of 22N east of the Bahamas, but with pulses of fresh to strong 
winds off the north coast of Hispaniola mainly at night through 
late Sunday. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt