000 AXNT20 KNHC 101041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 641 AM EDT Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, and extends south-southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02S45W on the coast of northern Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 02N to the equator west of 25W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 mb high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf near 29N85W, with a ridge extending from the high pressure to the coast of Texas. The gradient between the high pressure and a pair of troughs over the northwest Caribbean is allowing fresh east winds across the Straits of Florida, as noted in a recent scatterometer pass. Seas in the Straits are likely reaching 6 to 7 ft as a result. A weak pressure pattern is supporting light to moderate easterly winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. The southern stream jet remains active on the southeast side of a sharp upper trough parked over the far northwest Gulf. This is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms from the Bay of Campeche across the Yucatan peninsula into the south central Gulf and approaches to the Yucatan Channel. The ridge will persist from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf into early next week. A weak trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings, move offshore the Peninsula to over the eastern Bay of Campeche overnight through the mornings, then dissipate in the afternoons. CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated trough reaches from near the Isle of Youth to near San Andres Island. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed east of the trough axis with mostly 4 to 6 ft seas, and generally light northerly flow west of the trough with 2 to 4 ft seas. In the tropical Atlantic west of 55W, seas are still reaching 8 ft as noted in various altimeter satellite passes, largely due to fresh trades and lingering NE to E swell. A few showers are active along the trough, mainly due to speed convergence of the stronger winds to the east. A clusters of showers and thunderstorms is active in the Gulf of Guacanayabo in southwest Cuba, due in part to divergent flow aloft and convergence of local drainage flow. A few fast moving showers are active across the Leeward, Windward and ABC islands in the trade wind flow. The trough over the western Caribbean will drift westward through late today before before moving inland across Central America and dissipating. Moderate to fresh trades will persist east of the trough, with pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off northeast Colombia mainly at night. Seas east of Windward Islands will subside below 8 ft late today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A sharp surface trough, the remnants of an old frontal boundary lingers from 31N72W to central Cuba. A mid/upper level short wave trough moving off the Carolinas is supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms east of the trough near 26N73W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass shows fresh SE winds near the area of convection, but with generally moderate SE flow elsewhere north of 24N, moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 24N, except a pulse of 20 to 25 kt winds of the northern coast of Hispaniola. Recent buoy and a recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were 5 to 7 ft in open waters east of the Bahamas, and 3 to 5 ft north of the Bahamas and off the coast of northeast Florida. The trough will meander and weaken through early today before drifting slowly northwest through Sat. A ridge will build from central Atlantic southwest and across the waters north of 25N afterward, supporting generally moderate to fresh winds south of 22N east of the Bahamas, but with pulses of fresh to strong winds off the north coast of Hispaniola mainly at night through late Sun. Farther east, the eastern Atlantic is dominated by a large 1029 mb Bermuda- Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 10 to 15 kt N of 20N and 15 to 20 kt S of 20N. The winds N of 20N support seas of 5 to 7 ft, while the winds S of 20N support seas of 6 to 8 ft. No major changes are expected in the pattern across the central and eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic over the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen