000 AXNT20 KNHC 100524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 124 AM EDT Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and extends south-southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ begins near 03N20W and continues to 00N35W to 02S45W on the coast of northern Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is S of 05N to the equator between 24W and 53W and from 02N to 06N between 08W and 16W. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends across the SE United States to the NE Gulf with a high center of 1019 mb near 29N85W. This ridging is producing a weak northeast- southwest pressure gradient over the Gulf. Light and variable winds are occurring over the NE Gulf, with E to SE winds elsewhere over the Gulf basin, as confirmed by latest scatterometer data and surface observations. Seas are generally between 2 to 4 ft. No substantial deep convection is observed tonight over the basin, though some isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the southern Gulf. A similar pattern for winds is expected over the next several days. Increasing moisture and lift related to an incoming surface trough moving in from the east should boost the chances for deep convection over the eastern Gulf, Florida, and Cuba by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating surface trough extends from 20N85W to 17N84W and is void of deep convection. Another surface trough extends from south of Cuba at 21N82W southward to 11N80W. The combination of moisture on the eastern side of the trough and upper level diffluence is supporting isolated moderate deep convection within 250 nm E of the trough axis. As the trough S of Cuba moves slowly westward and weakens, enhanced convection is likely over the western Caribbean and Central America Friday through Sunday. A weak pressure pattern over the western Caribbean is producing winds 10 kt or less W of 80W. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over S America is producing 15 to 20 kt tradewinds over the remainder of the Caribbean with seas of 4 to 6 ft. As pressures drop in the southwestern Caribbean, Panama, and Colombia, the tradewinds respond by reaching up to near gale just north of Colombia Saturday through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 31N73W south- southwestward to 26N76W and then transitions to a surface trough to 23N79W. The combination of the front/trough and a mid- upper trough moving off the SE United States coast is supporting scattered moderate deep convection within 270 nm SE of the front/trough. The remainder of the front will transition to a surface trough through this morning, and then is anticipated to move slowly westward during the next few days bringing with it enhanced precipitation chances over the northwestern Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida through Monday. Elsewhere, the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large 1031 mb Bermuda- Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 10 to 15 kt N of 20N and 15 to 20 kt S of 20N. The winds N of 20N support seas of 5 to 7 ft, while the winds S of 20N support seas of 6 to 8 ft. No major changes are expected in the pattern across the central and eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic over the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto