000 AXNT20 KNHC 100004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Wed May 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and extends south-southwestward to near 03N19W. The ITCZ begins near 03N19W and continues to 03S43W on the coast of northern Brazil. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the Carolinas along with a weak northeast-southwest pressure gradient over the Gulf. The resulting east to southeast winds are generally 15 kt or weaker. The only exception to the E-SE flow is light and variable winds associated with a surface trough extending from 29N88W to 24N87W. No substantial deep convection is observed this evening over the basin, though some isolated showers are occurring over the southwestern and central Gulf. While winds should remain relatively quiescent over the next several days, increasing moisture and lift related to an incoming surface trough moving in from the east should boost the chances for deep convection over the eastern Gulf, Florida, and Cuba by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening surface trough extends from 21N84W to 17N84W and is void of deep convection. Another surface trough extends from south of Cuba at 20N82W southward to 12N79W. This is accompanied by isolated moderate deep convection within 120 nm E of the trough axis. Elsewhere isolated moderate deep convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with the eastward extent of the northeastern Pacific's monsoon trough. As the trough S of Cuba moves slowly westward and weakens, enhanced convection is likely over the western Caribbean and Central America Friday through Sunday. The tradewinds are weak today, 20 kt or less throughout the Caribbean as seen in buoy, coastal, and ASCAT scatterometer observations, due to a rather flat pressure gradient. As pressures drop in the southwestern Caribbean, Panama, and Colombia, the tradewinds respond by reaching up to near gale just north of Colombia Saturday through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N73W south-southwestward to 23N80W. The combination of the front and an mid-upper trough moving off the SE United States coast is supporting scattered moderate deep convection within 270 nm SE of the front. The front will transition to a surface trough through tonight, and then is anticipated to move slowly westward during the next few days bringing enhanced precipitation chances with it over the northwestern Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida through Monday. Elsewhere, the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large 1030 mb Bermuda- Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 20 kt or less. These winds, away from deep convection, should generally remain weak during the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto