000 AXNT20 KNHC 091745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Wed May 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough meanders westward across tropical western Africa, exits along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, and extends south-southwestward to near 03N19W. The ITCZ begins near 03N19W and continues to 02S46W on the coast of northern Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the Carolinas along with a weak northeast-southwest pressure gradient over the Gulf. The resulting east to southeast winds are generally 15 kt or weaker. No substantial deep convection is observed this afternoon, though some isolated showers are occurring over the southwestern and central Gulf. While winds should remain relatively quiescent over the next several days, increasing moisture and lift related to an incoming surface trough moving in from the east should boost the chances for deep convection over the eastern Gulf, Florida, and Cuba by Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from south of Cuba at 20N80W southward to 11N81W. This is accompanied by isolated moderate deep convection within 60 nm of the trough axis. Elsewhere isolated moderate deep convection is occurring in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with the eastward extend of the northeastern Pacific's monsoon trough. As the trough moves slowly westward and weakens, enhanced convection is likely over the western Caribbean and Central America Friday through Sunday. The tradewinds are weak today, 20 kt or less throughout the Caribbean as seen in buoy, coastal, and ASCAT scatterometer observations, due to a rather flat pressure gradient. As pressures drop in the southwestern Caribbean, Panama, and Colombia, the tradewinds respond reaching up to near gale just north of Colombia Saturday through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front extends from 32N72W south-southwestward to 28N74W where it becomes a trough that continues toward the northwestern Bahamas. Scattered moderate deep convection is occurring with 120 nm of the front/trough, aided by a mid to upper-level trough moving off the southeastern U.S. coast. The surface trough is anticipated to move slowly westward during the next few days bringing enhanced precipitation chances with it over the northwestern Bahamas, Cuba, and south Florida through Monday. Elsewhere the tropical North Atlantic is dominated by a large 1031 mb Bermuda-Azores high. The moderate pressure gradient equatorward of the high is producing tradewinds of 20 kt or less. These winds - away from deep convection - should generally remain weak during the next few days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea