000 AXNT20 KNHC 071742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 142 PM EDT Mon May 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N28W to 01S35W to 01S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong showers were occurring within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 25W and continuing to the Brazil coast. Scattered moderate thunderstorms were occurring within 150 nm within 02N22W and have been weakening over ther past 6 hours. ...DISCUSSION GULF OF MEXICO... A broad mid-latitude trough moving across the southeastern U.S. and the ern Gulf of Mexico is moving ewd at 20 to 25 kt. Ahead of this mid- to upper-level trough, a weak cold front was draped across southern Florida and extended southwestward to near Naples, and then continued into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24N85W, before turning westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico near 24N98W. The cold front is expected to weaken further as it drifts southward through tonight. Building high pressure across the northern and central Gulf will support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night. Winds in the basin gradually will veer to SE by Thursday night. A weak thermal trough will move westward across the ern Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then dissipate during the afternoon each day beginning on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough extends from central Cuba southward along 80W to 15N latitude. Behind the trough, winds are northerly at 10 kt; east of the trough axis, winds are generally easterly at 10 to 15 kt. A narrow band of scattered to numerous thunderstorms were occurring east of trough from ern Cuba swwd to Jamaica and continuing over the central Caribbean. This activity has persisted ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough moving out of the wrn Caribbean and into the central portion of the basin. Elsewhere, mostly fair skies prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front enters the basin near 32N77W and extends swwd to near Stuart, Florida. No shower activity is currently associated with the front. However, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front over South Florida later this afternoon, and then move eastward over the waters of the far western Atlantic, the Bahamas, and Straits of Florida by this evening. The the weak cold front will move slowly SE, and reach from near 31N77W to western Cuba by early Monday afternoon, then from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba early Tuesday. A weak surface trough is located just ahead of the front and extends southward from the nwrn Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring along the trough. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the front N of 27N through late Monday afternoon. The front will weaken on Wednesday and Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. A high pressure center will move SE from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on Thursday night, then to near 30N70W on Friday, but ridge W to near 30N80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Stewart