000 AXNT20 KNHC 071206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 AM EDT Mon May 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad upper-level trough extends ene-to-wsw from 13N83W in the Caribbean Sea, across the Lesser Antilles, to 27N35W in the Atlantic Ocean. Another broad mid- to upper-level trough extends southward out of the mid-latitudes of the eastern U.S. across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico to wrn Cuba and Nicaragua. A surface trough extends from the east coast of Florida southward through central Cuba to 12N80W in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N18W and 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 02S37W and 02S44W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 18W and continuing to the Brazil coast. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front was located across central Florida and extended southwestward to near Ft. Myers, and then continued into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24N87W, before turning westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico near 24N98W. The cold front is expected to weaken further as it drifts southward through tonight. Building high pressure across the northern and central Gulf will support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night. Winds in the basin gradually will veer to SE by Thursday night. A weak thermal trough will move across the eastern Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula during the morning hours, then dissipate during the afternoon each day beginning on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about the upper-level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The surface trough that is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section will dissipate by Thursday. An upper-level trough that extends e-to-w across from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua will gradually shift eastward. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms on the SE side of the trough. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida. A weak cold front located just offshore the coast of Georgia extends southward and southwestward into central Florida near Cape Canaveral. Although no shower activity is currently associated with the front, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front over South Florida later this afternoon, and then move offshore over the waters of the far western Atlantic, the Bahamas, and Straits of Florida by this evening. The the weak cold front will move slowly SE, and reach from near 31N77W to western Cuba by early Monday afternoon, then from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba early Tuesday. Fresh to strong southerly winds will precede the front N of 27N through late Monday afternoon. The front will weaken on Wednesday and Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. A high pressure center will move SE from the U.S.A. to 31N75W on Thursday night, then to near 31N70W on Friday, but ridge W to near 30N80W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Stewart