000 AXNT20 KNHC 061801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 PM EDT Sun May 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W and 02N29W. The ITCZ continues from 02N29W, cross the Equator along 33W to 01S40W and 0N51W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 0N to 09N between 05W and 13W and from 0N to 05N between 17W and 32W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 06S to 05N W of 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with base along the northern gulf supports a weak cold front that extends from the coast of Florida near 29N82W to the central basin near 24N90W to NE Mexico near 24N97W. Shallow moisture in the vicinity of the front supports isolated showers within 150 nm west of the front and scattered heavy showers over central Florida and the SE basin. Showers in the SE gulf are being enhanced by a pre-frontal trough that extends from Tampa Bay to 24N83W and across western Cuba into the NW Caribbean. The front will continue to move SE and exit the basin Monday night while a ridge builds across the basin in its wake. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are forecast through Tuesday night then will veer from NE to E from Wednesday through Thursday, except for SE to S in the far western Gulf in return flow as the high pressure center shifts toward the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper-level low centered over Cuba continue to support scattered to isolated heavy showers over eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage, Jamaica and Hispaniola. The low is forecast to become a trough by early Monday, however divergent winds aloft on the E side of the trough will continue to support similar convection in the same region through Wed. Light to gentle variable winds are in the NW and SW basin while strong high pressure in the Atlc centered near 31N55W support fresh to strong winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. These winds gradually will become fresh as strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slowly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough starting to move over the SW N Atlc along with a middle to upper level low centered over Cuba support unstable conditions across the central and eastern Bahamas. This is leading to the development of scattered to isolated strong rainshowers and tstms S of 28N between 69W and 76W. Isolated showers are off the NE coast of Florida associated with the advancement of a weak cold front and a pre-frontal trough across the northern half of Florida. A strong surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 31N55W covers the remainder basin N of 10N, thus supporting stable conditions. The cold front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas tonight, then push slowly SE to the NW Bahamas by Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos