000 AXNT20 KNHC 061058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad mid to upper-level low pressure system is centered over SE Cuba near 22N78W. A trough extends SW from the center of the low across the Caribbean to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Divergent upper-level winds on the E side of this system are supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Dominican Republic between 15N and 22N between 69W and 73W as well as near Jamaica and over SE Cuba and the SE Bahamas within 90 nm either side of a line from 25N74W to 16N79W. Shower coverage on the E side of this system has begun to decrease. That trend is expected to continue as model guidance is in agreement in weakening this system during the next couple of days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W and 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 03S32W and 04S38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 01N to 04N between 20W and 26W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the line 08N12W 07N30W 07N53W southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 07W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the north central and NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The current frontal boundary will move across the northern Gulf waters through Sunday, and exit from the eastern Gulf on Sunday evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night. The winds in the basin will veer from NE to E from Wednesday through Thursday, except for SE to S in the far western Gulf in return flow as the high pressure center shifts toward the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida. The 80W surface trough, that is associated with the SPECIAL FEATURES section, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds in the eastern Caribbean Sea. These winds gradually will become fresh, and back to the E from Sunday through Tuesday, as the trough heads WNW and weakens and strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slowly. The large upper-level cyclonic circulation center that is on top of Cuba will trigger showers and thunderstorms in the central and easter Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida. An upper level trough extends from a 30N15W cyclonic circulation center, just to the north of the Canary Islands, through 25N28W, to a 22N48W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 22N to 25N between 40W and 50W. The current 80W/81W surface trough will remain near the Florida Peninsula and gradually weaken through Monday night. A weak cold front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas on Sun night, then push slowly SE to the NW Bahamas by Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy