000 AXNT20 KNHC 060542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 141 AM EDT Sun May 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is along the Caribbean Sea side of Cuba along 78W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the circulation center covers the area from SW corner of the Caribbean Sea to 28N in the Atlantic Ocean between 68W in the Caribbean Sea and 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 84W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 80W/81W from 20N northward, and from 20N81W to 15N80W and 11N77W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the areas from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N southward from 74W westward in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea, and elsewhere from 15N northward in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 68W westward. This feature was forecast by the computer models at the beginning of the week. The GFS model forecast, for 250 mb and 500 mb, shows that the current cyclonic circulation center will stay on top of Cuba, weaken into a trough, and then move eastward. An upper level trough will move across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. The GFS model, from the surface to 700 mb, shows that a broad trough will remain in the area between 70W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea, during the next few days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N20W and 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 03S32W and 04S38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 01N to 04N between 20W and 26W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from the line 08N12W 07N30W 07N53W southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 07W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the north central and NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The current frontal boundary will move across the northern Gulf waters through Sunday, and exit from the eastern Gulf on Sunday evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support gentle to moderate N to NE winds through Tuesday night. The winds in the basin will veer from NE to E from Wednesday through Thursday, except for SE to S in the far western Gulf in return flow as the high pressure center shifts toward the NE Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida. The 80W surface trough, that is associated with the SPECIAL FEATURES section, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds in the eastern Caribbean Sea. These winds gradually will become fresh, and back to the E from Sunday through Tuesday, as the trough heads WNW and weakens and strong Atlantic Ocean high pressure weakens slowly. The large upper-level cyclonic circulation center that is on top of Cuba will trigger showers and thunderstorms in the central and easter Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more infomation about the upper level cyclonic circulation and surface trough near Cuba and the Bahamas and Florida. An upper level trough extends from a 30N15W cyclonic circulation center, just to the north of the Canary Islands, through 25N28W, to a 22N48W cyclonic circulation center, to 19N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 22N to 25N between 40W and 50W. The current 80W/81W surface trough will remain near the Florida Peninsula and gradually weaken through Monday night. A weak cold front will enter the waters N of the Bahamas on Sun night, then push slowly SE to the NW Bahamas by Tuesday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT