000 AXNT20 KNHC 051709 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 109 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... An upper level low is centered over central Cuba near 21N78W. Upper level cyclonic winds covers the NW Caribbean, Cuba, S Florida, the Bahamas, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. The east side of the circulation has a considerable amount of upper level diffluence enhancing convection. A surface trough extends from the W Atlantic near 30N79W to central Cuba near 22N80W to the SW Caribbean near 11N77W. Currently 20-30 kt winds, and 8-12 ft seas are over the Atlantic in vicinity of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of Hispaniola from 14N-19N between 71W-74W. Widely scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola, Bahamas, and the W Atlantic from 19N-29N between 71W- 77W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central and south Florida, and the Straits of Florida. Expect the upper level low to drift south to Jamaica by Sun night. Also expect the surface trough to move west to the E Gulf of Mexico by Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N30W to Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-03N between 02W-06W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02S-03N between 30W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from south Louisiana near 29N91W to Brownsville Texas near 26N97W. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the western Bay of Campeche. 15 kt N winds are N of the front, while the remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt E-SE surface flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for more infomation about the upper level low and surface trough over Cuba and the Caribbean. In addition, a 1010 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 09N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Panama and N Colombia. Expect widespread rainshowers and convection N of 15N between 70W and 80W through Sunday night. The winds and seas will subside gradually on Monday and Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Besides the surface trough over the W Atlantic, a 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N55W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward, and from 70W eastward. Expect a cold front to enter the W Atlantic on Monday morning, and drift to 32N70W on Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa