000 AXNT20 KNHC 041725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 00N35W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 00N35W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02S to 04N between 22W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends east to west from the western Atlantic along the northern Gulf coast to Texas. Offshore of the Texas coastal waters, moderate to fresh winds prevail from the southeast driven by the high pressure in the western Atlantic ocean. Fog from this morning has lifted and visibility is unrestricted. Farther south, a daily thermal low will develop inland on the Yucatan Peninsula causing surges of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds as the low strengthens and weakens over the coming days. For the forecast, winds over the southeast Gulf will diminish and back more to the NE and N through early Sat ahead of the surface trough from the eastern Atlc across Florida. Locally heavy rains and thunderstorms will accompany the trough as it moves into the eastern Gulf early Sun before stalling and weakening. The ridge will weaken as well and high pressure will shift west through the lower Mississippi Valley, allowing moderate northerly flow and 2ft to 4 ft seas through mid week. A weak cold front will pass through the region from southern Louisiana to southern Texas by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from east of Hispaniola into north central Caribbean. Scattered thunderstorms will continue in the Windward Passage as the surface trough moves north of the area through Sat. Seas will build over tropical north Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean to 6 to 9 ft through Sun. This pattern will persist through Sun, then start to subside into early next week as the trough moves farther westward and the ridge weakens. Atmospheric instability associated with the mid/upper level low will provide more thunderstorm potential to the north central Caribbean through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main weather maker remains a mid/upper level low centered over Great Exuma in the central Bahamas, driving a surface trough extending from 30N71W to the western tip of Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer pass over the surface trough indicates winds along the central Bahamian waters 30 kts out of the NE. Upper level divergence in the southeast region of the trough are driving heavy showers over central and southern Bahamian islands. E to SE winds will continue in Tropical North Atlantic through the central Caribbean as high pressure builds westward over the Atlantic in the wake of the trough. Strong NE to E winds are ahead of the trough east and across the Bahamas. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted between 21N and 27N, closer to the subtropical ridge axis. Buoy and scatterometer data also show strong SE winds in the waters N of Puerto Rico in the Atlantic, with recent satellite altimeter passes showing seas to 9 ft. This is related to ridging building in the wake of the trough. The trough will sharpen and elongate as it moves westward, eventually moving into Florida Sat. Strong to near gale force winds will accompany the trough as well numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas through Sat. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Bahamas and adjacent waters into Sun. Winds and seas will start to diminish Sun through early next week as the trough lifts north-northeastward off the northeast coast of Florida through Mon, and the ridge weakens, but held in place along roughly 28N/29N. Farther east, the remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure located near 33N57W. This system is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across the deep tropics, where seas are reaching 7 to 9 ft in NE to E swell. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Manougian