000 AXNT20 KNHC 030551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 AM EDT Thu May 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 01N25W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 01N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends east to west along the northern Gulf coast. Buoy and platform observations over the northwest Gulf indicate moderate to fresh SE winds are increasing to fresh to strong, between the ridge to the east and a trough over the southern Plains. Seas are reaching 5 to 7 ft so far, and may pass 8 ft before morning. Winds and seas will diminish later in the morning as the trough lifts out. A scatterometer pass from 0220 UTC indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Straits of Florida. Seas may be reaching at least 7 ft in this area due in part to the persistent easterly flow against the Florida Current. A few showers are noted on radar in this area as well. The persist ridge will allow the fresh to strong winds to persist through late Thu with seas reaching 9 ft, before diminishing through early next week as the ridge weakens. Farther south, a thermal trough is developing over the northwest coast of Yucatan. This is a normal occurrence this time of year due to strong heating across the Yucatan peninsula where high temperatures often reach into the upper 90s. The trough will drift westward overnight accompanied by a surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds, before dissipating over the SW Gulf later in the morning. This pattern will repeat each evening through the period. Elsewhere moderate to fresh winds persist with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf through early next week as the ridge to the north weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... Persistent high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean with seas of 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building seas across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles first, then across the eastern Caribbean Thu night into Fri due to the pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and a developing surface trough moving across the Bahamas. This weather pattern will keep relatively low winds of 15 to 20 kt off the coast of Colombia, and 10 to 15 kt elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Moisture will remain high across east and central Cuba tonight and Thu while drifting eastward across Hispaniola, keeping the likelihood of scattered to numerous showers and tstms. This will be associated with a cold core mid /upper-level low drifting southward from the Bahamas across eastern and central Cuba to the north central Caribbean. This unstable weather pattern could persist the remainder of the work- week over the eastern half of Cuba and parts of Hispaniola as the low meanders over the same area. Lightning data currently indicate very active weather in the form of scattered to numerous tstms over eastern Cuba, particularly E of Camaguey. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N53W to central Cuba. A large area of multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and tstms is noted along the frontal boundary east of the Bahamas between 65W and 75W. Scattered tstms are also evident over the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos Islands. A scatterometer pass from 0220 UTC showed a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds south of 27N west of 65W between high pressure north of the area and a developing trough north of Hispaniola. A sharp upper-level trough reaches from the north central Atlantic, across Bermuda, to the waters north of the northern Bahamas. A cold-core mid/upper low will become cutoff from the trough Thu and drift across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. This pattern is supporting the development of the surface trough north of Hispaniola. Active weather spawned by the instability of the cold- core low along with abundant moisture drawn northward in a fresh to strong SE wind flow will accompany the surface trough as it moves W through the Bahamas by late Fri and into the Florida peninsula Sat. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida this weekend as well as over western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected ahead of the trough, and fresh to strong SE winds will follow the trough, impacting mainly the waters S of 27N-28N and W of 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure located over the Azores. This is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the deep tropics, where seas are reaching 6 to 8 ft in NE to E swell. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen