000 AXNT20 KNHC 021205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed May 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 07N11W, to 02N13W, across the Equator along 16W, to 02S20W. The ITCZ continues from 02S20W to 02S27W, across the Equator along 34W, to 01N41W, to the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 04N southward from 06W eastward, and from 05N southward from 43W westward. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 04N to 06N between 09W and 13W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge cuts across the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge reaches NE Florida from a 1027 mb high pressure center, that is in the Atlantic Ocean near 33N70W. An upper level trough is digging southeastward, from the Florida Panhandle into the Straits of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of the trough. The current high pressure that is in the Atlantic Ocean,along 32N, extends from Bermuda to the SE U.S.A., and it will shift slowly E through Friday, maintaining an E-to-W ridge across the N Gulf waters. The wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the far SE Gulf, in the Straits of Florida, and in the western Gulf through early Friday, to the NW of a stalled cold front that will be across the central Bahamas. The winds in the Gulf will slacken on Saturday, as low pressure in the central U.S.A. weakens and the high moves eastward. A thermal trough will develop across the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening and move westward each night beyond 95W, from tonight through Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. High pres W of Bermuda will slide slowly E along 32N through Thu and maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N, with locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean. The southern portion of a broad inverted trough will move W across the extreme NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic Wed night, reach along 69W by Thu evening, then across Hispaniola to 73W by Fri evening, and along 77W Sat morning. High pres to the NE will support fresh to strong E to SE winds, and active weather E of the trough. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N59W. A stationary front continues from 30N59W to 25N70W, across the Bahamas, to 21N77W at the coast of SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to 210 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N54W to 26N58W to 24N67W and 26N80W. A stationary front extends from 31N59W through the central Bahamas to near central Cuba near 22.5N79W, with portion W of 70W will drift WNW tonight through Thu then weaken. High pres between Bermuda and the E coast will shift very slowly E along 32N through Thu the maintain fresh to strong winds N of front. A broad inverted surface trough will develop along 65-66W Thu morning and move W, reaching 72W Fri morning, and 76-77W Sat morning. High pres draped across the trough will support strong SE winds, and very active weather E of trough as is shifts W across the area Thu night through Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT