000 AXNT20 KNHC 020519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 AM EDT Wed May 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface high located offshore of the South Carolina coast producing generally moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across the basin. Generally clear skies prevail across the area. The high will continue to move east through Friday. Easterly winds will become fresh to strong in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida tonight, and continue through Friday as the high builds in the western Atlantic. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large high pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain fresh easterly trade winds south of 17N, with locally strong trades expected in the south-central Caribbean Sea south of 13N through early Thursday. The southern extent of a broad inverted trough will develop and move west across the northeast Caribbean by Thursday and continue through Saturday, resulting in an increase in showers and thunderstorms mainly east of 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic 32N74W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to 24N73W. A surface trough extends from 26N62W to 21N69W with scattered showers prevailing north of 23N and between 58W-67W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 36N43W. A persistent wind shift was noted across the far east Atlantic, and analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N20W to 28N31W. No convection is noted along this feature at this time. As the front and high pressure systems weaken over the west Atlantic, surface winds are expected to become easterly and in the gentle to moderate categories through Thursday. By Friday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop in the vicinity of the southeast Bahamas, inducing an inverted surface trough from the Bahamas to Hispaniola. East of the trough, winds will become southeasterly and increase to fresh to strong by Fri afternoon. The combination of the upper-low and the surface trough will produce widespread convection through Saturday along and within 600 nm E of the trough, including Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA