000 AXNT20 KNHC 011204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Tue May 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to cross the equator near 23W, and westward to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers from 02N to 04N between 17W and 23W. Scattered moderate rain showers are south of 03N between 28W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge located over South Carolina is producing generally southeasterly winds of 10-15 kt north of 25N, with easterly flow near 10 kt soutyh of 25N. Isolated light showers were occurring oer the wrn Gulf offshore of the ne coast of Mexico. The high will move ESE today, emerging over Atlantic waters by this afternoon with ridge extending westward across the northern Gulf through Thursday. Easterly winds will become fresh to strong in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida later today, and continue through early Thursday as high pressure builds southeastward in the western Atlantic Ocean. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sprawling high pressure system over the central Atlantic is maintaining fresh E trade winds south of 17N, with locally strong trades expected in the south-central Caribbean S of 13N through early Thursday. The southern part of a broad inverted trough will develop and move across eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday night, and then move over Hispaniola Thursday night and Friday, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds along with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N62W in the Atlantic Ocean, then becomes diffuse E of the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered to numerous showers continue SE of the frontal boundary north of 26N between 59W and 65W. A 1033-mb High, centered in the central Atlantic near 37N43W, is producing broad anticyclonic wind flow across the region east of the cold front. West of the front, light northerly flow dominates, and is expected to continue through early Thursday as the front weakens then becomes stationary from 31N59W to 24N70W by Wed. High pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through early Thu and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the waters NW of the front. A broad surface trough will approach 67W Thursday and move W to 72W Friday, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and more active weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Stewart