000 AXNT20 KNHC 301804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 06N18W and 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W, to the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil, at the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers from from 02N to 07N between 11W and 17W. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 41W westward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico into the SW corner of the area. A surface ridge extends from a SE U.S.A. high pressure center into the Straits of Florida. The high pressure center will move ESE, off the South Carolina-Georgia coast tonight, with the ridge extending W across the N Gulf waters through Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh winds will become fresh to strong in the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida beginning on Tuesday, then continue through early Thursday as high pressure builds southeastward in the western Atlantic Ocean. CARIBBEAN SEA... The SW part of a weakening cold front passes through 32N68W in the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern coast of Florida along 27N. rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N65W to 27N74W, to 20N78W near SE Cuba. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the area, from 12N southward from 76W westward. An eastern Pacific Ocean surface trough is along 08N between 74W and 84W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is on top of a 500 mb-to- 700 mb inverted trough, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure remains centered in the N central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the entire area south of 17N, with locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through early Thursday. The southern part of a broad inverted trough will pass over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday night, the NE Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and then across Hispaniola on Thursday night and Friday, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active weather. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The SW part of a weakening cold front passes through 32N68W in the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern coast of Florida along 27N. rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N65W to 27N74W, to 20N78W near SE Cuba. A stationary front passes through 32N63W to 28N70W, crossing the Bahamas near 23N75W to 28N79W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N62W 29N65W 26N68W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N to 26N between 68W and 80W. rainshowers are possible remainder of the area from 60W to the stationary front from 20N northward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 36N43W. The cold front, that is moving SE from Florida, will merge with the stationary front by early Tuesday. The merged front will reach from 27N65W to W Cuba near 23N79W by early Wed. Strong high pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through early Thu and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the central and SW waters N of the front. A broad surface trough will approach 67W Thu and move W to 72W Fri, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and active weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT