000 AXNT20 KNHC 291113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 713 AM EDT Sun Apr 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Frequent gusts to gale force winds are forecast along the coasts for the following area: AGADIR. Near gale force winds are forecast for the NE portion of the following area: TARFAYA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, consists of the threat of near gale over AGADIR and TARFAYA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 01N25W to the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present off the coast of W Africa from 00N to 07N between 13W and 18W, from 01N to 03N between 25W and 34W and along the coast of South America within an area bounded by 06S28W to 06S34W to 03S45W to 04N52W to 04N38W to 06S28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front has pushed SE from the Gulf into the Caribbean. A 1019 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W. Light and variable winds are occurring beneath the high over the NW Gulf. Winds are moderate to Fresh over the remainder of the gulf along the flanks of the high. Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection are seen over the central Gulf from 24N to 27N between 86W and 91W, in response to a weak mid- level disturbance moving over the region. This disturbance will continue moving east into the western Atlantic today. High pressure over the NW Gulf will head east off the Georgia coast on Mon but maintain a ridge WSW across the northern gulf waters through Thu. 15 to 20 kt SE return flow will then dominate the Gulf Mon through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... An old frontal trough extending from the Gulf of Honduras northeastward across central Cuba will meander through Sun morning then dissipate. A reinforcing cold front has stalled from NW Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula and will drift SE tonight into the NW Caribbean and slowly dissipated through Mon. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N, with locally strong trades across S central Caribbean along the north coast of South America through Thu. Otherwise, a relatively dry weather pattern is being promoted by mid to upper-level ridging extending over the basin from South America. This pattern will persist through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N68W through weak 1013 mb low pressure centered near 28N74W to 24N75W, then continues as a weakening cold front to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring to the E of the front over the Bahamas from 21N to 25N between 72W and 76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also found along and up to 90 nm SE of the front to the N of 29N. A new cold front entering the NW waters from the SE United States will move quickly eastward and merge with the weakening front along a position from near 28N65W to W central Cuba Mon night, then become stationary from near 27N65W to W central Cuba by early Wed. Strong high pressure will slide eastward near 31N Mon night through Wed and create a tight gradient between it and the front. Deep layered troughing in the vicinity of 60W Wed will manifest itself as an inverted trough at the surface that is forecast to shift W on Thu toward the SE Bahamas. An upper-level trough extending SW over the eastern and central Atlantic from 32N30W to 25N36W to 17N54W is generating an area of cloudiness and isolated showers and thunderstorms W of the Cape Verde Islands from 15N to 20N between 25W and 41W. A very large 1036 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 38N42W is producing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and fair weather over the tropical Atlc N of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. Winds veer from the E to SE along the SW flank of the high. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy