000 AXNT20 KNHC 251733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1735 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02N28W to 01N40W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N-03N between 21N-24N, and from 01S-01N between 48W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from the Equator to 02N between 31W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, the cold front that was previously moving across the Gulf of Mexico has reached western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and tstms are noted along the frontal boundary. The front is forecast to become diffuse tonight. Weak high pressure of 1019 mb now dominates most of the gulf region with mainly a gentle to moderate anticycloninc flow. Another weak cold front will reach the Texas coast tonight, and move across the northwest and north-central waters Thu and Thu night, then over the eastern gulf late Thu night through Fri night as it slows down. This front will then exit the southeast gulf on Sat followed by weak high pres that will become centered over the northwest gulf. The high pres will slide eastward to the far north-central gulf by Sun night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow the front early on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front has reached western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are noted in association with the frontal boundary. The front is forecast to become diffuse tonight. A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Caribbean along 63W. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers are in the wake of the trough currently affecting the Lesser Antilles where light showers have been reported. Moisture associated with this through is forecast to move across Puerto Rico and the UK/US Virgin Islands early on Thu increasing the likelihood of showers. Latest satellite derived winds and seas and an ASCAT pass reveal moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong trades within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are evident elsewhere across the Caribbean as well as across the tropical N Atlantic waters. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong over the central Caribbean the next couple of nights. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will continue through the period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N75W southwest to western Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are noted in a band well ahead of the front. Similar convective activity is also noted across the Straits of Florida, but it is forecast to diminish by this afternoon as a cooler air mass invades the area. The front will stall and dissipate tonight, particularly W of the Bahamas. A second weak cold front will move over the northwest waters Fri night. This front will reach from near 31N72W to the Straits of Florida Sat night, and from near 31N66W to 25N72W to west-central Cuba by Sun night. Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front, with generally gentle to moderate west to northwest flow expected in the wake of this front. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N46W and continues SW to near 27N62W. Scattered showers and tstms are noted within about 90 nm SE of the front N of 28N. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front, and moderate to fresh NE-E winds are blowing behind the front based on scatterometer data. The front is associated with a weak 1018 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N45W. This low is expected to move into the forecast waters early on Thu. The remainder of the Atantic Ocean is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located over the Azores near 37N25W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR