000 AXNT20 KNHC 241743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends from 03N16W to 01N30W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm N of ITCZ axis between 20N-27N. Similar convection is also observed from the Equator to 04N between 46W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, FL to 24N78W where it becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. A few tstms are along the frontal boundary between 85W and 89W, and also near 23N88W. Gentle to moderate northerly flow follows the front with seas of 2-4 ft. The cold front will move across south Florida and the SE Gulf this evening, also affecting the Yucatan peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move across western Cuba and southeast of the area on Wed. The cold front could support some shower and tstm activity over western Cuba and the Yucatan penindula on Wed. Weak high pres will once again build across the gulf region behind the front producing a light to gentle anticlyclonic flow, and seas generally of 3 ft or less. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of Venezuela. These winds will pulse to fresh to strong intensity at night and into the afternoons beginning tonight. They are expected to continue through the period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening cold front will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed, and could increase the likelihooh of showers and tstms. Abundant moisture to the east of a rather sharp mid/upper trough is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the eastern Caribbean, including the Lesser Antilles. Expect this weather pattern to persist on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large area of showers with embedded tstms and gusty winds is affecting the waters N of 26N W of 70W, including parts of the NW Bahamas. Freeport in the Bahamas reported 1.65 inches of rain during the las 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT. This convective activity is the result of a stationary frontal boundary extending across the Atlantic from 31N51W to 27N65W to 31N75W. A very well pronounced diffluent pattern aloft is also helping to induce this convective activity. In addition, a very tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over the southeastern United States and strong high pressure over the western Atlantic is producing strong to near gale force east to southeast winds over the northern waters, particularly N of 27N between 72W and 78W based on buoy and ship observations. Seas in that area are in the 8-12 ft range. A recent scatterometer pass also confirmed the presence of these strong winds. These marine conditions will gradually diminish through Wed while shifting northeast of the area. The broad low pressure over the SE CONUS will track northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast through Wed night dragging a cold front across the northwest portion of the forecast area. The front will reach from 31N78W to south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight, and from 31N74W to western Cuba on Wed. The remainder of the Atantic Ocean is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR