000 AXNT20 KNHC 241204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01N30W to the Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-05N between 20W-27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-03N between 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is extends from N Florida near 31N81W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers near Lake Okeechobee Florida. Scattered showers are also within 45 nm of the front over the Gulf. A 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N95W with 5-10 kt anticyclonic surface winds. Aloft, broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf with scattered to broken upper level clouds. The cold front will reach the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf by Wednesday morning, while it will remain nearly stationary in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move SE of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front. Another weak cold front is expected to move just offshore the Texas coast early on Thursday. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Costa Rica and Panama from 08N-11N between 79W-84W. Similar convetion is inland over N Colombia. An upper level trough is over the central Caribbean. Upper level diffluence is over the E Caribbean with broken to overcast high clouds and possible isolated showers. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of Venezuela through early Tuesday afternoon. These winds then will pulse to fresh to strong at night and into the afternoons beginning tonight. The winds are expected to continue through the period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening cold front will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Prefrontal convection from the Gulf of Mexico front is over the W Atlantic. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 24N between 72W-78W, to include the N Bahamas. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 32N50W to 26N70W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 51W-55W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N31W. An upper level trough extends from a 32N09W cyclonic circulation center that is in the coastal plains of Morocco, to the Canary Islands and 25N15W at the coast of the Western Sahara, to 20N34W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from 40W eastward. A very tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over the southeastern United States and strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean, is producing strong to near gale force east to southeast winds in the northern waters west of 70W. These wind conditions will diminish gradually through Wednesday, while shifting northeast of the area. The broad low pressure center will track northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday night. The low pressure center will push a weak cold front across the northwest part of the area on tonight, and then across the north- central waters on Wednesday and Thursday, before stalling there on Thursday night. Another weak cold front will move over the far northwest part of the area on Friday and Saturday, and over the north central waters on Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa