000 AXNT20 KNHC 240515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01N30W, to the Equator along 41W, and to the Equator along 46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 02N to 04N between 18W and 27W, and from 01N to 03N between 37W and 41W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through north central Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the area near 20N at the coast of Mexico. High level clouds, some from earlier convective precipitation, cover the area from 90W westward. Broad upper level westerly wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The current cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Tuesday morning, and will reach the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf by Wednesday morning, while it will remain nearly stationary in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move SE of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front. Another weak cold front is expected to move just offshore the Texas coast early on Thursday. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through Hispaniola, to 15N75W, to SE Nicaragua. Comparatively drier and more stable air is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 11N to 16N from 70W westward to land. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 11N southward. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture northeastward, to the SE of the line that passes through 20N65W 16N70W 11N75W. Isolated moderate rainshowers surround Hispaniola from 17N to 21N between the Mona Passage to SE Cuba/Jamaica. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia and the northwest coast of Venezuela through early Tuesday afternoon. These winds then will pulse to fresh to strong at night and into the afternoons beginning tonight. The winds are expected to continue through the period, but over a smaller coverage area. A weakening cold front will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N51W to 30N54W. A stationary front continues from 30N54W to 28N60W and 26N70W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean 27N northward from 75W westward. An upper level trough extends from a 32N09W cyclonic circulation center that is in the coastal plains of Morocco, to the Canary Islands and 25N15W at the coast of the Western Sahara, to 20N34W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from 40W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward from the cold front/stationary front eastward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 35N31W. Numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, with strong gusty winds, are occurring NE of the Bahamas. A very tight pressure gradient between broad low pressure over the southeastern United States and strong high pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean, is producing strong to near gale force east to southeast winds in the northern waters west of 70W. These wind conditions will diminish gradually through Wednesday, while shifting northeast of the area. The broad low pressure center will track northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic coast through Wednesday night. The low pressure center will push a weak cold front across the northwest part of the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then across the north- central waters on Wednesday and Thursday, before stalling there on Thursday night. Another weak cold front will move over the far northwest part of the area on Friday and Saturday, and over the north central waters on Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT