000 AXNT20 KNHC 240004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01N30W to Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 22W-35W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-03N between 35W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the area. Scattered moderate rainshowers cover the SE Gulf from 23N- 25N between 85W- 87W. Scattered showers are over most of the Florida Peninsula. More scattered showers are S of the front near Tampico Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 18N93W depicted by a wind shift. The current cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue morning, and will be across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf by Wed morning while it will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The the front is forecast to move SE of the area on Wed. Weak high pres will build across the area behind the front. Another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the Texas coast early on Thu. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern gulf by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are presently over Costa Rica and Panama. Expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms to build shortly over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, N Colombia, and W Venezuela during maximum diurnal heating. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with upper level diffluence over the E Caribbean. Broken high clouds are over most of the E Caribbean, E of 70W. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia through Tue. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also expected along the southern coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon. A weakening cold front will reach NW Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 26N70W dissipating to 26N77W. A warm front continues to beyond 31N81W. Isolated moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the stationary front. A large 1031 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N32W. Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms are associated with the warm front/stationary front, that is affecting the waters N of 27N. The warm front will continue to lift northward, with strong to near gale force southeast flow developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas this afternoon and tonight, in association with the surface low forecast to move eastward into the Atlantic Ocean on Tue. It will push a weak cold front across the northwest portion Tue through Wed, and across the north- central waters Wed night and Thu while it slows down. Another weak cold front will move over the far northwest portion Wed night and Thu before it also slows down Thu night and Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT