000 AXNT20 KNHC 231209 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 808 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, 01N23W, to the Equator along 30W, to Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-04N between 22W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to Tampico Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf from 24N-26N between 83W-87W. Scattered showers are over most of the Florida Peninsula. More scattered showers are within 120 nm S of Tampico Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N90W to 18N93W depicted by a wind shift. The cold front will reach from Apalachee Bay to 25N88W to eastern Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from near Tampa Bay to 24N89W and stationary to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Tue. The cold front will slow down as it moves across the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida early Wed morning, then reach NW Cuba by late Wed night into early Thu, while the stationary portion remains from the eastern Bay of Campeche to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pres will build across the area behind the front, however, another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the Texas coast early on Thu. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern gulf by Fri night, followed by gentle to moderate NW to N flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are presently over Costa Rica and Panama. Expect afternoon and evening thunderstorms to build over Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, N Colombia, and W Venezuela during maximum diurnal heating. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Caribbean with upper level diffluence over the E Caribbean. Broken high clouds are over most of the SE Caribbean. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. A weakening cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 26N70W dissipating to 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas and W Atlantic N of 24N and W of 75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A large 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 36N31W. The current stationary front will lift northward through early Monday. Near gale-force southeast wind flow will be developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday and Monday night, in association with a surface low pressure center that will move eastward across the southeastern United States. The surface low pressure center will track northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday. The low center will drag a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwestern waters during the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa