000 AXNT20 KNHC 230518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, 01N23W, to the Equator along 27W, to 01S33W, and to 01S45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving through the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, passing through extreme SE Mississipi/SW Alabama, the coastal sections of Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. A surface trough is about 75 nm to the ESE of the cold front, from 25N to 29N. A warm front cuts across the Atlantic Ocean that is immediately to the north of the NW Bahamas, passing just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and beyond the Florida Big Bend. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 24N northward from 90W eastward, including inland parts of South Florida. Convective debris clouds are from 29N southward from 92W westward. The cold front will reach from near Apalachicola to 25N90W and inland Mexico near Coatzacoalcos on Monday morning, from Apalachee Bay to 25N88W to eastern Bay of Campeche on Monday evening, and from near Tampa Bay to 24N89W, and stationary to the eastern Bay of Campeche early on Tuesday. The cold front will move across the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida early on Wednesday morning, then reach NW Cuba by late Wednesday night into early Thursday. The stationary part of the front remains from the eastern Bay of Campeche to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pressure will build across the area behind the front. Another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the Texas coast early on Thursday. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough cuts across SE Cuba to southern sections of Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 82W and 86W, in parts of western Panama and southern Costa Rica, and in the coastal waters of Panama and Costa Rica. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to 11N between 79W and 86W, including from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in Colombia and Venezuela from 06N to 12N between 68W and 75W. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 18N northward between Puerto Rico and 80W. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia through Tuesday. Fresh-to- locally strong winds also are expected along the southern coast of Hispaniola tonight through this morning. A weakening cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N52W to 31N53W. A stationary front continues from 31N53W to 28N60W, and to 27N78W. A warm front continues from 27N78W, across South Florida, and beyond the Florida Big Bend and the SW corner of Georgia. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that passes through 32N48W 27N60W 24N70W 23N80W. An upper level trough extends from a 32N13W cyclonic circulation center, to the Canary Islands, to 18N40W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 50W eastward. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 10N northward from the cold front/stationary front eastward. A 1031 mb high pressure center is near 36N33W. The current stationary front will lift northward through early Monday. Near gale-force southeast wind flow will be developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday and Monday night, in association with a surface low pressure center that will move eastward across the southeastern United States. The surface low pressure center will track northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday. The low center will drag a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwestern waters during the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT